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uu快三注册:巴菲特,芒格投资思想的几个特点 二

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TD 公司网站的投资者信息中有计算股票投资回报的工具。

2013 - 2019    127.52%

2007 - 2013    45.04%

2001 - 2007    120.78%

1995 - 2001     333.01%

1989 - 1995     26.84%

1983 - 1989     204.10%

1977 - 1983     282.94%

每年的7月10日价格计算

上面的时间是从写帖子的今天算起,所以是个随机结果,不是刻意挑选的。2007-2013投资回报较低,原因大家都知道,这里想提一下2013.7.10-2014.7.10的投资回报是35.87%,是均值的2.5倍。1989-1995加国多伦多的房价下跌了50%,之前六年股价涨了二倍,之后六年股价涨了三倍。2001,1995,1983是股市低位期,2007,1989是股市的高位期。1996年是上次房价危机的最低时期,以此为起点考虑TD长期回报并不合适。

 “Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”  - Peter Lynch 

"Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions.

Our system is to swim as competently as we can and sometimes the tide will be with us and sometimes it will be against us. But by and large we don't much bother with trying to predict the tides because we plan to play the game for a long time.

I recommend to all of you exactly the same attitude.

It's kind of a snare and a delusion to outguess macroeconomic cycles...very few people do it successfully and some of them do it by accident. When the game is that tough, why not adopt the other system of swimming as competently as you can and figuring that over a long life you'll have your share of good tides and bad tides?" - 芒格

上面的阶段投资回报表现吻合了芒格的观点,Good tides的收益会抵消Bad tides的负面影响,TD的情况是Good tides的收益是Bad tides的十倍以上。

The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves.

But, unlike the lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do.  - 巴菲特

市场长期毫无疑问是上涨的,所以只要是不太离谱,多少总能挣点,长期投资亏损的概率是极低的,理论上因该100%是不会亏损的。

网友投资TD的整个过程对Timing没有特别要求,即使是在股市最高,最糟糕的时刻开始,结果相差也不大,因为前二年的Bad tides之后就是8年的Good tides,其中还会有二年超高回报的Good tides可以完全弥补甚至大大超过前二年Bad tides的负面影响。

Leverage是值得认真思考的一个重要方面,因为一倍的金融杠杆可以将一个普通的蓝筹股投资回报提升到世界一流,这也是巴菲特投资的一个特点。在考虑金融杠杆风险的时候,我们不妨参考一下大千,那里基本上没有人会在美国CCC List中的股票上使用金融杠杆,而且绝大多数人的杠杆倍数都远超1倍。在美国市场中,只需要一倍杠杆就可以将一个普通蓝筹股的投资回报水平提升到世界一流的水准,这是巴菲特干了一辈子的事。

 

股市小书生 发表评论于
回复 'MoatCity' 的评论 : Warren Buffett 1998 Talk at University of Florida

In response to a question about Japan, Buffett mentions how most Japanese businesses produce low returns on equity, and how time works against you when you own low return businesses:

“Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity. They have a bunch of businesses that earn 4%, 5%, or 6% returns on equity. It’s very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you’re in doesn’t earn very much money.”
MoatCity 发表评论于
"市场长期毫无疑问是上涨的,所以只要是不太离谱,多少总能挣点,长期投资亏损的概率是极低的,理论上因该100%是不会亏损的。"
Would that apply to all other equity market? Like Japan?
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